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2027: Defections, Trust Deficits, and the Test of Political Relevance By Ayobami Akinropo

There is nothing new under the sun. Actions have consequences. However, the consequences of spitting into the well that once quenched your thirst may be more devastating than imagined. When next you need a drink, you may discover that the same source of water is no longer available to you.

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The political poaching and transactional politics currently unfolding in Nigeria  raise serious questions about the stability, integrity and future of our democracy. A solid political foundation cannot be built on lies, deceit, manipulation and the selfish pursuit of personal interests.

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While I salute those who stand firmly by their political ideologies, convictions and principles, I find it difficult to overlook the actions of those who jump from one political party to another, particularly at the eleventh hour. Such individuals, in my opinion, fit the description of Political Judas.

I do not entirely blame them; rather, I blame a political system that creates room for political prostitution, rewards opportunism and celebrates betrayal as political strategy. They may enjoy temporary recognition, financial inducements and political appointments today, but the bigger question is what becomes of their political relevance when the excitement of the 2027 election is over.

In their desperate quest for immediate gains, some may unknowingly be digging their own graves of political irrelevance and eventual oblivion.

However, their departure should not necessarily be seen as the end of the road for the political structure they are leaving behind. Rather, it could create fresh opportunities for other committed, loyal and emerging political actors to occupy vacant spaces, demonstrate their capacity and build their own relevance.

There may be temporary setbacks, initial disorganisation and loud political noise surrounding their exit, but political structures are not built around individuals alone. With time, the noise will subside, emotions will settle, and the true strength of the remaining structure will become clearer. Those who remain committed may eventually discover that what initially appeared to be a loss has created room for a new generation of leadership and political growth.

One fundamental issue that deserves serious consideration is TRUST.

Can they be trusted again?

Will those celebrating them today genuinely trust their loyalty tomorrow? Can someone whose conscience and political conviction appear to have been traded for a few thousand dollars, political promises or the opportunity to dismantle a structure they once helped build be trusted to remain committed to a new political arrangement?

Political Judas are not merely ungrateful political actors; they are also potential liabilities to the very political platforms celebrating their arrival. A person who can betray one political family after benefiting from its collective sacrifices may find it difficult to convince another political family that their loyalty is unquestionable.

Betrayal often comes dressed in the garment of justification. Just as someone involved in an unfaithful relationship may constantly manufacture excuses to justify their actions, political defectors sometimes construct elaborate narratives to rationalise decisions driven by personal interests.

But as the Yoruba saying goes, “ÃŒgbẹ̀yìn ni Å„ dùn olókun, àdá sì.” The consequences of one’s actions are often better understood in the end, when the reality of decisions made in the past finally becomes apparent.

Those who have openly declared their intention to pull down the very political structure that strengthened and empowered them because of certain promises are like landlords abandoning well-built houses for uncompleted buildings, only to insist that they have moved into better accommodation.

The question is not whether they have the freedom to leave. They do. Politics is a game of choices, and nobody should be compelled to remain in a political party against their conviction.

However, the real issue is the manner of departure, the credibility of the reasons offered and the consequences of abandoning relationships and structures that once provided them with political relevance.

After the 2027 election, when the campaign drums have stopped beating, political appointments have been distributed and the temporary excitement of defection has faded, what will remain of these new alliances?

Will the new political benefactors still find them relevant? Will those who abandoned their former political family become indispensable members of their new political home, or will they eventually discover that they were merely useful instruments in a temporary political calculation?

Political loyalty should not be demanded blindly, but neither should betrayal be celebrated as political sophistication.

Ultimately, elections will come and go, political parties will win and lose, and alliances will be formed and dissolved. But one asset that every serious political actor must protect is credibility.

You may abandon a political structure today, but you cannot dictate how history will remember your departure.

Ayobami Akinropo writes from Ibadan

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