Political Analysts Predict Joseph Tegbe as  Winner of APC Guber Ticket in Oyo

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Independent Political Analysts has predicted that Joseph Olasunkanni Tegbe, will clinch the  All Progressives Congress APC gubernatorial ticket in Oyo state .

The organization in a survey carried out among political stakeholders in APC,Oyo  said the chances of Engineer Tegbe is winning the primaries is brighter than others.

According to the report, signed by John  Akinropo ,Project coordinator    and Idowu  Ayobami secretary of the organization, the contest would be keen between Otunba Alao Akala ,Bayo Adelabu and Joseph Tegbe but Tegbe’s affiliation with SENACO group and romance with the governor gives him a edge above other aspirants

Read the report

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Summary of Independent Political Analysts’ Findings on APC Gubernatorial Aspirants and  Why Engineer Joseph Tegbe May Emerge as The Party Flag Bearer .

THE development of politics in Oyo state is becoming interesting especially with the alignment and realignment of political parties with the eventual creation of   African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Action Democratic Party (ADP)

Major political parties that will participate in the next general elections include : APC, PDP, ADC, ADP, ACCORD and AD. Out of which just only one party will produce the next governor of the state.

Independent Political Analysts (IPA), recently carried out a survey on the disposition of the stakeholders in Oyo politics and  general public on the political development in the state and who among the aspirant in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state is likely to emerge as the party flag bearer.

What prompted the survey is to  ascertain the level of acceptability and popularity among the stakeholders at the grassroot level and the delegates that will participate in the September 25 delegates conference where a candidate will clinch the party ticket.

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Without any iota of doubt, all the eight aspirants  jostling for the party ticket are eminently qualified and enjoy supports from different quarters and have their group of canvassers mobilizing for them in all the nooks and crannies of the state, but it was noted that some of them don’t have their support base beyond  their localities .

The eight aspirants’ includes;

Chief Bayo Adelabu

Mr. Olasunkami Tegbe

Dr. Azeez Adeduntan

Barrister Adeniyi Akintola

Otunba Adebayo Alao Akala

Dr. Olusola Ayandele

Barrister Adebayo Shittu

Ayo Kareem

From the survey, out of all the eight aspirants,  five  are from Ibadan zone, housing the largest voting population,   and numbers of delegates , while others are from Oke -ogun , Ogbomoso and Ibarapa zones. This correctly implies that only Oyo zone is not represented in the contest.

Interacting with stakeholders during the survey revealed that three notable aspirants were considered to have a better chance above others based on popularity, political affiliation, cognate experience and relationship with the party. Meanwhile, since the delegates conference is not a tea party, the financial strength of the aspirants will also go a long way in determining who clinch the ticket.

Continuing, Otunba Alao  Akala, the Ogbomoso born  politician and former governor of the state   who joined the APC officially  in 2017 is one of the most popular candidate. His political  camp is not as solid as it was in 2015 when he contested under the platform of the Labour Party (LP). Checks revealed that some of his loyalists had earlier moved to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) while others remained in the PDP. Majority of his political allies will not make the delegates’ lists of the APC. The ones that will make it are not enough for him to win gubernatorial ticket of the party. but he is sure of having about 40%  of the delegates in Ogbomoso  and less than 20% in Oke Ogun , Oyo, Ibarapa   as well as  few in Ibadan.

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Chief Bayo Adelabu. An experienced banker who retired as Deputy Governor of the Central Bank in the country is young and dynamic. He is enjoying the relationship with the heirs and beneficiaries of the late Aare Arisekola Alao and followers of late Adegoke  Adelabu. He has been consulting widely and making inroads into the party gradually through this link.  Adelabu doesn’t really have a solid support at the party level, most of his supporters are not politicians, even those who claimed to be politicians are not delegates  and will not be involved in the process of selecting candidates for any position.

Asides his low level of acceptability by the party members ,there is also a notion, that he Adelabo would be controlled by the ‘Ibadan Establishment’ at the detriment of the ‘common people’ which may negates the unitary intention of the party and the development of other zones, if he eventually becomes the Governor of the state.

Though, his financial strength will fetch him some votes  in Ibadan, Oke-ogun  Oyo and Ibarapa, but his chances of winning the primary is very low, because he doesn’t belong to the right click at the party level and the influence of money may not work as earlier envisaged .

Joseph Olasunkami Tegbe; An experienced administrator with both local and international organizations. His foray into politics started over a decade ago, but he has been operating behind the scene. Some of the participants maintained  that Tegbe’s political rise and connection across the state is connected to two major factors.

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Tegbe maintains a worthwhile relationship with the incumbent governor, Senator Abiola Ajimobi, and also one of the strong members of the SENACO group.  Majority of the delegates that will participate in the delegates’ election are SENACO members, in fact  it was gathered that about 80 percent of the delegates belong to  SENACO group  and that gave him an edge over other members.

From the empirical analysis and study of the political arrangement in the APC , in Oyo state ,the following were discovered:

Ogbomoso:  Alao Akala holds 40% of the delegates while the SENACO group conveniently holds 60%.

In Ibadan , the     SENACO group  holds 80 % and the LAMISTS  including others  have the 20%

Also, in Oyo –    SENACO 90% ,others 10 %

Oke Ogun – SENACO 85% , others 15%

Ibarapa SENACO  70 % , others 30%

Having considered and reviewed the status and political rating of the aspirants, Joseph Olasunkami  Tegbe is likely to emerge as the next gubernatorial candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Oyo state and his emergence as the governor of the state lies in the ability of his team to consolidate on the  strategy adopted to  launder his image and manifesto,  retain the commitment and loyalty of the party loyalists and other aspirants especially those that contested against him at the primaries  and others

John  Akinropo

Project coordinator

Idowu  Ayobami

Secretary

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