Recently, members of APC in Oyo have focused their attention on ADC, creating imaginary crisis within the party and ultimately, painting demons out of its leaders. Perhaps they have sensed, apart from having an intimidating number of influential politicians, it has a good spread in all the zones of the state. However, as promising as ADC is, there are other oppositions that are more potent than both ADC and PDP. Let me highlight three of the events that have turned themselves to ideologies which voters will line up for in 2019 general election.
The first one is Ibadan Cultural Identity Protectors’ Party- ICIP. This party has its ideology central to protecting Ibadan kingship culture which recognise ONLY Olubadan of Ibadan as the Oba presiding over Ibadan land. The party will have the Mongaji Forum who are mostly rich and understand Ibadan terrain as its mobilising agents. ICIP will be fighting to demolish Ajimobi’s erected Olubadan Council Reform which they believe every APC’s candidate must have internalised. Undoubtedly, ICIP will influence up to 30% of Ibadan votes. Both PDP and ADC will benefit the votes or either of the two.
Save Our Future Coalition (SOFC) is another opposition that will cause APC an unimaginable damage in the 2019 elections. The coalition is more potent than ICIP because the theme it is romanticising and protecting is universal and central to achieving an egalitarian society; bridging the gap between the upper and the lower class and eradicating poverty and diseases. The major players in SOFC are Oyo students in all the six Oyo State owned tertiary institutions; the entire staff of all the institutions and all elites who are bothered about the state of education in the state.
The students will be fighting APC for protracting their stay in schools i.e. APC’s lackadaisical attitudes towards performing its constitutional responsibilities on the institutions has made the schools embarked on strikes for at least 120 days per session since 2015. The staff of these institutions are being owed between 23 to 8 months arrears of salaries coupled with the fact that, for the 7 years of its existence, the APC government had not taken any steps to address infrastructural deficits in any of the schools. It is important also to note that these students and staff of the institutions are mostly residents of Oyo state and they are all of voting age. The students’ parents too are not happy with the manners the government of APC has been handling education of their children. Also, the parents whose students are presently in secondary schools will do everything possible to send APC parking as a measure for their children to pay less and have a smooth academic calendar.
As it stands presently, APC will not only lose the votes of workers of the institutions, it will lose those of their dependants- children, parents and their customers who have also felt the effects of none payment of salaries. SOFC is more dangerous for APC to tackle because, invariably, to them APC government has created problems threatening their existence. Two, they know what they want, they cannot be induced like a common voter. Three, SOFC has at least a base and members in all the zones of the state unlike ICIP, it has the spread. There is no zone in the state where an ordinary man on the street does not feel absence of the students and their lecturers in the market. By extension, SOFC has sympathisers who may fight with them in every market in the state.
Lastly, The Green Snake Party (GSP) like their name sounds, they don’t have an identifiable voice like the others but they will play the most dangerous role to fall APC. They are the politicians in APC who are not happy with the governor. They have been serially humiliated by the governor and have got no recognition until a section of the party finally pulled out. Despite the false recognitions they are presently enjoying, they don’t lose focus on working out a revenge on the governor. Some of them will pull out with certain governorship aspirants who would be outsmarted by governor’s influence during the primary. Some will wait until the election day to leak APC logistics to the strongest oppositions while some will take APC money to work against it.
This is empirical! Not written out of love or hate for APC but sourced from the real issues that have place in Oyo State political history. Akala vs Alaafin in 2011gave Ajimobi 80% vote in Oyo town. Ladoja vs politicians fell Ladoja in 2005. And again, PDP politicians who were not happy with Akala leaked PDP secrets to ACN and most of them worked against PDP in 2011. Akala vs teachers dropped PDP’s popularity in 2011. Teachers. Vs. Lam strengthened the riggers in 2003.